{"id":13007,"date":"2021-05-26T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-26T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/?p=13007"},"modified":"2021-05-24T21:52:14","modified_gmt":"2021-05-25T02:52:14","slug":"mocking-iowas-2020s-congressional-districts-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/2021\/05\/mocking-iowas-2020s-congressional-districts-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Mocking Iowa&#8217;s 2020s congressional districts (4)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Census Bureau released its county-by-county estimates on May 4. By &#8220;released&#8221;, I mean &#8220;said in advance they would be available but I had to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www2.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/popest\/datasets\/2010-2020\/\">dig into nested folders<\/a> and stumble on a straight-outta-1995 icon list that <a href=\"https:\/\/www2.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/popest\/datasets\/2010-2020\/counties\/totals\/\">led me to a CSV file<\/a> containing year-by-year estimates for every county in the United States, copy rows T807-T906, and paste them into my pre-existing mock-district spreadsheet.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Then came the biggest takeaways:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The July 1, 2020 estimate (NOT the April 1 head count) adds 8491 people from the 2019 estimates, for a state estimate of approximately 3.16 million, and an ideal congressional district population of 2122 more each.<\/li>\n<li>The vast majority of Iowa&#8217;s 99 counties changed up or down by fewer than 200 people &#8230; except Polk and Dallas, which combined grew by 7630 \u2014 nearly 1% of a district! <em>Nine and a half people moved to Dallas County every day.<\/em><\/li>\n<li>That, and 2600 more people in Johnson County, blew up every map I&#8217;d made.<\/li>\n<li>Notice that the estimated growth in those three combined is greater than the growth in the state estimate. The other 97 counties lost 1739.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While these numbers are closer to what will be used for creating Iowa&#8217;s districts, they aren&#8217;t exact. Keeping that in mind, let&#8217;s see how out of whack my maps got thrown.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mock 1: Hinson&#8217;s nightmare<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/2021\/03\/mocking-iowas-2020s-congressional-districts\/\">map<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/maps\/mock1vs20.png\" width=\"225\" height=\"91\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Mock 2: Incumbent-safe<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/2021\/03\/mocking-iowas-2020s-congressional-districts\/\">map<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/maps\/mock2vs20.png\" width=\"227\" height=\"92\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Mock 4:\u00a0The Marshall County Dangler<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/2021\/04\/mocking-iowas-2020s-congressional-districts-2\/\">map<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/maps\/mock4vs20.png\" width=\"224\" height=\"91\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Mock 5: Weird within adjusted parameters<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/2021\/04\/mocking-iowas-2020s-congressional-districts-3\/\">map<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/maps\/mock5vs20.png\" width=\"227\" height=\"91\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Mock 7: Double gerrymander<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/2021\/04\/mocking-iowas-2020s-congressional-districts-3\/\">map<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/maps\/mock7vs20.png\" width=\"225\" height=\"91\" \/><\/p>\n<p>So, yeah, everything went seriously off except for Mock 1 Districts 1 and 4 \u2014 the map that scrambles incumbents and separates Polk and Dallas counties \u2014 and Mock 2 District 1. <em>However<\/em>, every individual district meets the 1% deviation percentage variance threshold, as do Mock 1 and, ironically, the gerrymander maps. The rightmost columns for the 2011 districts were 76 and 0.01%.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s back to the map mines until the actual numbers come in September. Iowa&#8217;s\u00a0Temporary Redistricting Advisory Commission still <a href=\"https:\/\/nonpareilonline.com\/news\/state-and-regional\/govt-and-politics\/legislative-redistricting-on-hold-until-iowa-gets-granular-census-data\/article_1dd7cb8e-866a-5095-bf02-537a118ab676.html\">needs a fifth appointee<\/a>. It&#8217;s, like, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.legis.iowa.gov\/committees\/committee?endYear=2019&amp;groupID=587\">three meetings<\/a>, right? Would I have to submit conflicts of interest?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Census Bureau released its county-by-county estimates on May 4. By &#8220;released&#8221;, I mean &#8220;said in advance they would be available but I had to\u00a0dig into nested folders and stumble on a straight-outta-1995 icon list that led me to a &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/2021\/05\/mocking-iowas-2020s-congressional-districts-4\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-maps"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13007"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13007\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13012,"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13007\/revisions\/13012"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iowahighwayends.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}