Conferencepocalypse II: Lightoller’s staircase

[Second Officer Charles] Lightoller had a more tangible yardstick – the steep narrow emergency staircase that ran from the Boat Deck all the way down to E Deck. The water was slowly crawling up the stairs, and from time to time Lightoller walked over to the entrance and checked the number of steps it had climbed. He could see very easily, for the lights still gleamed under the pale green water. His gauge showed time was flying.
— Walter Lord, A Night To Remember

I really hate to compare the Big 12 to the Titanic. I’m not the first. But from where it stands right now, early Monday morning, the boats are dwindling, and Iowa State is still in steerage.

The Orlando Sentinel (via Chicago Tribune):

Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State, the remaining three members of what was the Big 12 Conference, would most likely end up in the Mountain West Conference, giving the league some much needed boost.

That’s trying to make the MWC look good, although it may not need the help. The MWC handed the Cyclones their first overtime loss in history (9/7/96, Wyoming 41, ISU 38). And it’s home to a New Mexico team that went 1-11 last year but gave up fewer points to Utah than ISU did (56-14 vs. 68-27).

Matt Tait of KUSports gets it:

That leaves K-State, Baylor and Iowa State. It’s likely that each is panicking big-time and, at this point, may very well be hoping for major conference expansion beyond 16-team conferences. If the leagues grow to 18 or, gasp!, 20, as some have suggested, that dramatically increases K-State, Iowa State and Baylor’s odds of remaining in a major conference and keeps them — for now — from having to face the music of what life might be like in the Mountain West.

But K-State has an out: Kansas, at least publicly, has its back. Again, Mike Hlas:

On its own, Kansas State might struggle to find a good conference fit. But if linked with Kansas and Missouri, K-State could work its way into the Big East. Baylor and Iowa State could have the most difficult situation staying relevant.

Baylor’s name keeps popping up, but its situation is different, both by circumstance of being in Texas and being a private school:

Baylor, a Baptist school of 14,000-students just keeps getting better and better. There are new facilities all over campus. The athletic complexes are state of the art, opulent and undeniably big-time in basketball and baseball and softball and track, where they’ve won and regularly compete for national titles. [For what it’s worth – and it’s not worth much – Baylor won the women’s basketball tournament in 2005.]

A Big 12 basketball blog goes straight for the jugular:

ISU just doesn’t have enough to warrant admission into a power conference. The[y] split the Iowa market with a B1G school and just don’t have a footprint outside of the state. I hate to dog a conference school like this, and Clone fans tend to hate my world view, but if the Hawkeyes don’t campaign for ISU (and they won’t) then who does? If nobody, what does ISU bring to a power conference that would make them extend an invitation?

But maybe, maybe, the Texas Legislature will swoop in

Multiple league sources confirmed Sunday that Texas lawmakers, including Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, are preparing to take a more active role in determining whether Texas A&M should head to the Southeastern Conference and whether Texas should join Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech as part of a four-school move to an expanded Pac-12….

If the Big 12 implodes, there has been speculation about the Big East seeking to bring in the five remaining Big 12 schools (Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Iowa State) as part of an expanded football league in 2012. Another scenario could include the Big East going after only Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri.

…or not.

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