Iowa Highway Ends (etc.)

Since 1990, the Morning Sun school district has sent junior high and high school students to three surrounding districts: Mediapolis, Winfield-Mount Union, and Wapello.

Now Wapello, at least, is interested in making the relationship exclusive. Wapello’s certified enrollment has fallen by 100 students in five years.

Looking at nearby district maps and county lines (PDF), Morning Sun-Wapello is a good fit. The former probably wouldn’t have enough pull to get a name change for a unified district (South Louisa), given that Wapello’s superintendent phrased the proposal in a way that implied the Morning Sun building would be closed eventually if a full merger took place. (Although perhaps Morning Sun should try to make that part of the deal.)

“New information from the Iowa Department of Education predicts a promising enrollment future for the state’s public school districts,” the Cedar Rapids Gazette says in the lead of its article. However, that sentiment only applies to the state’s suburban districts and certain urban ones.

Overall, the state expects K-12 enrollment to increase by 4351 students in the next five years, a 0.9% rise. Since 2000 at least, the only year-to-year increase was 2010 to 2011, when the entire state’s total enrollment increased by 11 students (technically, 10.8).

Here’s the catch: 47 percent of that estimated five-year increase (2048) will pour into one district — Waukee. In fact, projected growth in three districts combined — Ankeny, Iowa City, and Waukee (4625) — exceeds the overall growth projection for the entire state of Iowa.

From the spreadsheet on the department’s website (Excel), here’s what is expected to happen, aside from what’s discussed in the Gazette article linked above:

• 137 of 348 individual districts (in 2012-13) would gain students in the next five years and 211 districts would lose students.
• Excluding the top three, the average growth in the 137 districts would be 76 students.
• Storm Lake, Western Dubuque, and Denison are the only non-urban/suburban districts in the top 20 for projected growth.
• Grundy Center is a surprisingly high entry in the growth list, with a potential of about 116 new students (18%).
• While percentages can be skewed for particularly small districts, 38 would lose 10% or more of their totals.
• That number includes Moulton-Udell, South Page, Springville, Tri-County, and Twin Cedars, all already quite small.
• North Tama could lose nearly an entire class’s worth of students, 34, and GMG may drop below the 300 mark.
• As an aside, the Clear Creek Amana district mentioned in the Gazette article includes all of Coralville from a mile east of old IA 965/Coral Ridge Avenue westward, including the mall, and North Liberty west of Jones Boulevard.