So, I didn’t win Redistricting Powerball. Oh well. Ironically, my very first map based on 2019 population estimates — and, to a lesser extent, Mock 21 — came closest to pegging the new 1st District. The overall variance is 99, slightly better than my 151 in Mock 23. Here’s the link to the LSA site.
IMO, it’s misleading to treat “old” and “new” districts with any sort of continuity. The “new 1st” retains only two counties of the old 1st, Linn and Jones. Despite that, the 538 website managed to mis-assign Ashley Hinson to the new 2nd and Mariannette Miller-Meeks to the new 1st. (MMM is at the very bottom of the new 2nd.) However, because of the nature of Iowa districts, it’s easy to compare county clusters, and their previous statewide-election partisan breakdowns.
From a map perspective, it’s very interesting to draw comparisons with the third 1981 proposal, the first set under the new system and only one so far to go to a third map.
- Anything with Linn and Johnson together creates a district friendly to Democrats. And, as John Deeth points out, “Johnson and Linn are a self-contained unit of 12 House and 6 Senate districts.” That’s basically half a congressional district.
- But then, if “split Linn and Johnson” is an unspoken wish/demand from the Legislature, and it’s the one thing the LSA won’t/can’t do, it could get ugly. My Mock 14, 17, and 17A each fit the bill, but with variances in the hundreds, and Iowa Code specifically states that the second plan cannot be worse.
- One of the photos on Page 33 of this report looks awfully familiar…
- The only other “self-contained unit” runs across 14 counties at the Minnesota border — but contain only 6 House/3 Senate districts.
- Polk and Dallas counties make up three-quarters of the population in the proposed 3rd Congressional District.
- Senate Districts 7 (all or part of Madison, Adair, Guthrie, Greene counties, plus half each of Carroll and Dallas) and 47 (Camanche to Peosta) are the two congressional-district jumpers.
- Tama County and Wapello County (Ottumwa) have only been together in a congressional district twice before: the 1860s and the 1960s.
- Tama County’s proposed state House district is remarkably similar to its 1990s House district, with northern Benton County and part of Black Hawk. However, this time, the companion district is southwest to Marshalltown instead of southeast to Iowa County. Each House district can keep a current representative (Dean Fisher of Garwin, Sue Cahill of Marshalltown).
- Tama County’s proposed state Senate district would be an open seat in 2022.
- In the 1980s, Mason City, Burlington, and Clinton were all just a smidge too big to be their own House districts (as were Marshalltown and Fort Dodge in failed maps). Now, though, each needs to pull in surrounding areas to create one. Council Bluffs and Dubuque were each “two plus a little” and remain roughly so.
- Have I mentioned Waukee’s city limits are outrageously absurd? Because Waukee’s city limits are outrageously absurd. Ditto for Carlisle.
- Ankeny now has an entire state Senate district to itself, and Marion makes up 3/4 of one. (And have I mentioned Ankeny’s south city limits are outrageously absurd? Did the Census Designated Place of Saylorville set up a force field?)
- Coralville and North Liberty, plus a bit of Iowa City, pretty much make up a Senate district as well. This ends the greatest political buddy comedy that never happened, a pairing of Republican Bobby Kaufmann and his state senator, Democrat Zach Wahls.
- Proposed House 39 and present House 40 are identical: Urbandale, minus a chunk between 72nd and 86th streets. In the 1980s, one House district could hold Clive, Urbandale, and Windsor Heights.
- Follow IA 4 and IA 25 from top to bottom and you’ll only hit four state Senate districts.
- Extremely tangential note: Jefferson County did NOT surpass its 1870 population. In fact, it hit its lowest population since 1940. Only part of that is due to Maharishi Vedic City appearing to nearly vanish, losing 1000 people from 2010.
- Anyone say anything about Illinois? Does the New York Times know the Illinois Legislature exists?